Is the soft landing here? Wall Street strategists have been racing to reduce their recession odds in the last week. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell revealed during the post-FOMC meeting press conference that Fed staff had upgraded its forecast from a mild recession in H2 2023 to no recession. In the past few weeks,...
Mid-week market update: The market reaction to the FOMC decision was mostly a yawn. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was expected, and Powell refused to commit to further hikes while repeating his data dependency mantra. As a consequence, the S&P 500 was mostly unchanged from before the decision to after the close....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Ever since the softer-than-expected June CPI report, the Wall Street narrative has pivoted toward disinflation and a soft landing. The disinflationary trend had been building for some time and inflation has been surprising to the downside around the world. As a consequence, the markets have taken a risk-on tone in anticipation of less...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that Q2 earnings season is potentially pivotal for the stock market (see What to watch for in a pivotal earnings season). Going into reporting season, the consensus is calling for a rebound in earning, though the recovery is expected to be stronger in large and mid-caps compared...
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