Well-known value investor Jeremy Grantham recently penned an essay titled, “The Great Paradox of the U.S. Market”, in which he warned, “Prices reflect near perfection yet today’s world is particularly imperfect and dangerous”. In particular, he sounded the alarm over the bubble in AI stocks and cited the Gartner Hype Cycle as the main...
Mid-week market update: Marketwatch recently highlighted analysis from NDR which concluded that sentiment was extended and while it may make sense to be cautious about adding risk, it's too early to turn tactically bearish until readings recycle from an overbought condition. I agree. I've been saying the same thing for several weeks. A...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
During Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, he said that it will likely be appropriate to begin cutting rates “at some point this year”. At the same time, he reiterated the message that other Fed officials sent to the markets that the Fed is not ready...
Mid-week market update: In the short run, how the market reacts after price gaps can be important clues to market psychology and direction. How quickly the market fills a gap is a measure of either strength or weakness. As accompanying hourly chart of the S&P 500 shows, we have price gaps everywhere (upside gaps...
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