Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The recent stock market rally has been astounding. Sentiment readings on the Fear & Greed Index surged from extreme fear in October to extreme greed in less than two months. While extremely fearful sentiment can be useful buy signals, extreme bullish sentiments are condition indicators and inexact sell signals. This leads to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Fed has clearly pivoted. It indicated at its December FOMC meeting that, for all intents and purposes, it was done hiking and the “dot plot” is projecting three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024 against a soft landing backdrop. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was given ample opportunity to push back against the dovish narrative. Instead,...
Mid-week market update: The Fed delivered a dovish pause today. In addition, Powell was given opportunities to push back with bearish scenarios, such as raising concerns over the recent risk-on rally as a sign that financial conditions are loosening, or the elevated levels of super-core inflation, but he declined to do so. It is becoming...
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