A ZBT buy signal update

Mid-week market update: Today's market action has a constructive quality to it. The S&P 500 managed to stage an upside breakout through 5500 resistance and fill the price gap just above that level. The latest development saw the index pulled back to succesfully test the 5500 resistance turned support       It's normal to...

4 reasons to be cautious about the ZBT buy signal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

An American Emerging Market crisis?

Something unusual happened recently. During risk-off episodes, U.S. economic pain has been cushioned by falling bond yields and an appreciating USD, which translates into lower interest rates and more consumer spending power.   The risk-off episode that began in early April, which was just after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, saw the opposite. The price...

60/40 in an era of American Unexceptionalism

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...