I have a constructive outside-the-box modest proposal, in light of all the recent hand wringing about how to open the Strait of Hormuz, the recent Economist cover, and the latest 60 Minutes story about the difficulties that the U.S. faces in opening the Strait. Is it time for a TARP-style government financial engineering,...
Mid-week market update: While the equal-weighted S&P 500 has been in a well-defined uptrend, which in intermediate-term bullish, other major U.S. equity averages have been mired in trading ranges, which reveal a degree of uncertainty about short-term direction. In addition, the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, remains above the 100 level indicating continued uncertainty....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
We should all have seen it coming. At the end of 2025, Time Magazine named its person of the year as “the architects of AI”. This was the classic example of the contrarian magazine cover indicator. As well, U.S. investors who watched the Super Bowl also saw a flood of AI-related TV commercials....
Mid-week market update: The delayed Jobs Report came in much higher than expectations this morning. The knee-jerk reaction in the pre-opening hours was risk-on, but the market reconsidered its view and pulled back after the open. Once again, the S&P 500 has failed to break out to the upside, though the equal-weighted S&P 500...
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