Mid-week market update: I noted on the weekend that the S&P 500 was at the end of a upper Bollinger Band ride, and such instances usually resolve in consolidation or pullbacks. In the past, the pullback usually ended at the 20 dma, which is roughly where the market is today. In other cases, market weakness continued...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I received considerable feedback to last week’s publication, Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade? I suggested that while gold remains in a long-term bull market as the market is transitioning to a hard asset cycle, gold prices are due for a multi-month period of consolidation and pullback much like the 2004–2006 episode. Further discussions...
Mid-week market update: My former Merrill Lynch colleague Fred Meissner of The Fred Report wrote on the weekend that "the yearend rally has started, and a trend following indicator...we primarily use for risk management to show that trends have turned positive on key indexes". From a purely technical perspective, I agree. The S&P 500 has begun...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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