How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

I want to believe

Mid-week market update:  One of the running themes of the TV show, the X-Files, is a poster on the wall of FBI agent Mulder with the caption "I want to believe".     As the S&P 500 breaks out at the 6000 resistance level and Street strategists scramble to their index targets, I also want...

A cresting tide?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Why “Sell America” isn’t equity bearish

I have been fairly cautious in my U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean I am equity bearish. The accompanying chart shows the progress of different major regional stock markets priced in USD in the last 20 years. With the exception of China, whose stock market doesn’t reflect its economy, stock prices...