Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t return from Switzerland and proclaim “Trade peace in our time” while waving a piece of paper. Instead, the interim deal represented a signal toward a trade détente and the acknowledgement that China is an equal in global trade with the U.S. The agreement. lowered the U.S. tariff on Chinese...
Mid-week market update: The market's turnaround on Monday was remarkable. Going into Friday, expectations for the Geneva trade talks weren't high. Trump had floated a reduction in the tariff rate to 80%. Instead, the U.S. cut the rate to 30%, and China cut its rate to 10%. With recession tail-risk fading, it's not a surprise...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the economy may need to undergo a detox period before it returns to more stable growth. Since that warning, stock prices sharply pulled back and the VIX Index spiked to above 60, which are levels not seen since the 2024 bottom, the COVID Crash and the GFC. Related...
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