Mid-week market update: Trump promised a flurry of executive orders to implement his campaign promises on the first day he took office. Amidst the flurry, the market breathed a sigh of relief as there were no major risk-off catalysts. The market is apolitical and it doesn’t care about the reversal of DEI policies, or whether...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
There are many remarkable similarities between the 1980–1981 stock market pattern and today. Ronald Reagan was elected in November 1980 amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm and ushered in a revolution, much like Trump. Reagan entered office with a foreign policy win, which was the release of the American hostages held by Iran. Trump enters...
Mid-week market update: Is the bond market tantrum over? Here is the good news. In the wake of tame PPI and CPI reports this week, the 30-year Treasury yield retreated while in a resistance zone (top panel). In addition, there is nothing worse than a failed breakout. The second panel shows the inflation factor...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?). The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: I reiterate my belief that while seasonality is informative of climate, it is not a forecast of the weather ahead. 2024 was a difficult year based on seasonal patterns, as depicted by Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader. Instead, the stock market was weak in the second half of December and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: What happens when an ominously sounding Hindenburg Omen occurs when the market is oversold? David Keller described the three components of the Hindenburg Omen in an article: The market has to be in an established uptrend; Market breadth becomes highly bifurcated, as measured by the expansion of new highs and new lows;...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: We are entering the time of year when investors and traders position themselves for the end of the year. These conditions have made it more challenging for anyone trying to trade based on conventional technical analysis. The most obvious is tax loss selling, when investors harvest losses to offset their (likely)...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader recently indicated that the first part of December sees a period of seasonal weakness, followed by small cap leadership into year-end. I regard seasonality as informing me about the climate, while the weather can vary day-to-day. Here is my assessment of the weather ahead. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the season when investment strategists publish their outlooks and forecasts for the coming year. This year, the message from investment banks is mostly the same: “We are bullish for stocks in 2025, but there are these policy risks of the new Trump Administration.” This time last year, I expected returns of about...
Mid-week market update: It is said that there is nothing more bullish than a stock or a market making a new high. The S&P 500 made a marginal all-time high yesterday and pulled back today. Yesterday’s high was more convincing as both the Dow and equal-weighted S&P 500 decisively broke out to all-time highs. This...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The decline in the S&P 500 seems to have been arrested at its 20 dma (blue line). The next question is which price gap gets filled first. A fill of the upside gap (in grey) would be positive for the bull case, while a fill of the downside gap (in pink) would...
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