Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
There has been increasing concern about the K-shaped economy. Fed Chair Powell specifically addressed this issue at the last post-FOMC press conference: To start with the layoffs, you’re right, you see a significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring, or actually doing layoffs, and much of...
Mid-week market update: My market analysis publication published on the weekend ended with the following: The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride last week and weakened to the 50 dma support level. Past pullbacks in the most recent bull trend have ended when the 5-day RSI became oversold. Next week’s market action...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
My former colleague Fred Meissner revealed a disturbing contrarian warning in a recent weekly commentary: “The most concerning story: recently I was on a panel for the CFA Society of San Francisco. All three analysts had the same outlook, which is my base case – a yearend rally followed by problems in the first part...
Mid-week market update: I noted on the weekend that the S&P 500 was at the end of a upper Bollinger Band ride, and such instances usually resolve in consolidation or pullbacks. In the past, the pullback usually ended at the 20 dma, which is roughly where the market is today. In other cases, market weakness continued...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I received considerable feedback to last week’s publication, Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade? I suggested that while gold remains in a long-term bull market as the market is transitioning to a hard asset cycle, gold prices are due for a multi-month period of consolidation and pullback much like the 2004–2006 episode. Further discussions...
Mid-week market update: My former Merrill Lynch colleague Fred Meissner of The Fred Report wrote on the weekend that “the yearend rally has started, and a trend following indicator…we primarily use for risk management to show that trends have turned positive on key indexes”. From a purely technical perspective, I agree. The S&P 500 has begun...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
