Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that Q2 earnings season is potentially pivotal for the stock market (see What to watch for in a pivotal earnings season). Going into reporting season, the consensus is calling for a rebound in earning, though the recovery is expected to be stronger in large and mid-caps compared...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Q2 earnings reporting season could be a pivotal one. Earnings reports and subsequent corporate guidance are likely to give investors greater clarity on whether the economy is softening into a slowdown or undergoing a soft landing and recovery. The preliminary picture is a fragile recovery. Forward guidance for Q2 has improved from Q1. Negative...
Mid-week market update: It finally happened. The NASDAQ 100 is being re-weighted in order to address “concentration risk” (full details here). It was a belated decision in response to narrow market leadership, but the problem seems to have moderated on its own. Large-cap technology stocks, which had been on a tear, stalled against the S&P...
I’ve been thinking about the nonfarm payroll report that was reported on Friday. Employment has been gradually slipping from a 5 and 8 handle to about 200K today. The June headline payroll report came in at 209K, which was under consensus expectations. The big surprise was the decline in the unemployment rate. ...
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