As the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with the 4% level and the yield curve steepens from its inverted condition, it’s worthwhile to keep in mind that the universe is unfolding as it should. Monetary conditions are tight, inflation is moderating, the jobs market, though tight, is weakening, and the economy is chugging along with no...
Mid-week market update: There is a time for an aggressive posture in positioning and there is a time for patience. This is a time for investors to be patient. In the aftermath of the rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 is consolidating its gains after breaking out through resistance at 4600 to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The S&P 500 staged an upside breakout in December through a cup and handle pattern but it was rejected at all-time-high resistance, which is a somewhat disappointing development. Instead of worrying about whether it can rally through resistance, here is another index that staged a cup and handle breakout, but to all-time-highs. It’s...
Mid-week market update: I know that this is a trite expression, but the easy money has been made. The rally off the October bottom has been astounding. My trading model was fortunate enough to spot the exact day of the bottom when insiders started buying an oversold market. The rally enjoyed further tailwinds in...
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