Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...
The latest BoA Global Manager Survey is a dramatic illustration of market anxiety. In July, 18% of respondents believed that a U.S. recession was the biggest tail risk. That figure surged to 39% in the August survey, which was taken August 2–8 right at the height of the market panic. During the market...
Mid-week market update: I wrote on the weekend that investors should watch for signs of an O'Neill follow through day for bullish confirmation of the rebound. A follow through day can occur as soon as day 4 (last Friday) of a rally. It’s defined as the index rising 1% or more on higher volume...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
After strengthening rapidly, the Japanese Yen (bottom panel) has stabilized has stabilized in the 140-150 range. The 10-year Treasury-JGB spread also stabilized and found support. So did the Nikkei Average after suffering the greatest one-day decline since the Crash of 1987. The Bank of Japan sounded a dovish tone when deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said...
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