Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The markets took a risk-on tone in the wake of a softer-than-expected CPI report, followed by a tame PPI report and strong retail sales print. Even before these reports, Mohamed El-Erian issued a warning about the goldilocks scenario of lower oil prices and falling bond yields. Is market psychology in a “bad news...
Mid-week market update: Until yesterday’s market melt-up, it seemed that individual investors were fighting the rally, which is a contrarian bullish sign. I noticed it on the weekend when the level of engagement on my bearish tweets were an order of magnitude higher than my bullish ones. In addition, the New York Fed’s recent consumer...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The S&P 500 exhibited a surprise price reversal on the weekly chart. After violating an uptrend line that stretches back to the COVID Crash bottom which scared the living daylights out of a lot of investors, the index staged an upside reversal while the weekly stochastic recycled from oversold to neutral, which has been a...
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