NAAIM buy signal update

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

I had highlighted an unusual contrarian buy signal in my last post (see Round number-itis at 2500). NAAIM sentiment, which is reported weekly, turned anomalously bearish last week and fell below its lower Bollinger Band. Past episodes of such occurrences have turned out to be very good contrarian buy signals.     The reading last week was anomalous because every ...
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Round number-itis at 2500

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: I normally write my mid-week market update on Wednesday, but the market action on FOMC decision days tend to be wildcards and not necessarily indicative of future market direction, therefore I am writing my commentary a day early. I agree with Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners when he wrote that the stock market is likely to encounter ...
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A secular bottom for inflation?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
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Things you don’t see at market bottoms, Paris Hilton edition

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. I have stated that while I don’t believe that the stock market ...
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A “good overbought” advance, or an imminent pullback?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: A number of major averages hit fresh all-time highs this week. For traders and investors, the question is whether the market is likely to continue to grind upwards while flashing a series of “good overbought” signals, or will it pull back?     Here are the bull and bear cases. Fresh highs are not bearish The most ...
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The Fed’s perfect storm of 2018

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

I see that the world is catching up to me. The resignation of Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer has sharpened the focus of analysts on the future composition of the Fed Board in determining the direction of monetary policy. This is a topic that I have been writing about since June (see A Fed preview: What happens in 2018?). ...
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Correction is over, wait for the blow-off top

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.