How far can this momentum rally run?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: How far can this momentum rally run? Already, the momentum frenzy is exceeding the pace set during the height of the Tech Bubble.     The WSJ recently published an article about the dominance of price momentum: “The Momentum Game Has Returned to the Stock Market”. Forget fundamentals: Momentum is back in the stock market. For the ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

Bubbleology 101: How to spot the top in a market melt-up

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

Can the melt-up continue?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Mid-week market update: The week began on a bullish note this week as the melt-up theme dominated early in the week (see Jeremy Grantham`s call for a possible melt-up, and my own views published last November: Embrace the blow-off, but with a stop loss discipline). On Monday, the market rose for a fifth consecutive day, which flashed a First Five ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

Things you don’t see at market bottoms: Retail stampede edition

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish sentiment should be viewed as ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.

Could a Trump trade war spark a bear market?

In Subscribers only by Cam Hui

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset ...
To access this content, you must be a subscriber.