Surprising conclusions from advanced rotation analysis

Mid-week market update: I have been asked to periodically update my sector leadership analysis as a guide to spot up and coming sector strength. The standard approach is to apply the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) to the market. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups,...

How to watch for signs of another Lehman Crisis

It has been 10 years since the Lehman bankruptcy, which became the trigger for the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The financial press has been full of retrospective stories of what happened, and discussions from key players. The GFC was an enormous shock to investor confidence. Ever since that event, many investors have been living with...

Is China ready for the next downturn?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Short-term bullish, long-term cautious

Mid-week market update: There are a number of signs that the pullback that began in late August has run its course. These conditions makes me short-term bullish, but I remain longer term cautious on equities. The market's recent action of a correction to test its breakout level turned support is constructive. The index pulled back...

Tech as the canary in the coalmine

Technology stocks have been on a tear in the last couple of years. Indeed, both the Tech sector and the Tech heavy NASDAQ 100 has been market leaders.     Tech earnings have surged in this cycle. By contrast, non-Tech earnings appear to be at or near a cyclical peak.     Can it continue?...

Red sky in the morning

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...