I received considerable feedback to last week’s publication, Ready for the Contrarian Gold Trade? I suggested that while gold remains in a long-term bull market as the market is transitioning to a hard asset cycle, gold prices are due for a multi-month period of consolidation and pullback much like the 2004–2006 episode. Further discussions...
Mid-week market update: My former Merrill Lynch colleague Fred Meissner of The Fred Report wrote on the weekend that “the yearend rally has started, and a trend following indicator…we primarily use for risk management to show that trends have turned positive on key indexes”. From a purely technical perspective, I agree. The S&P 500 has begun...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been a gold bull for quite some time. I highlighted its bullish potential in early 2024 when it staged an upside breakout to an all-time high at 2100. Last November, I reiterated my bullish view with the publication, 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold. Since then, gold prices have gone parabolic and soared to...
Mid-week market update: As the bulls and bears battle it out during this phase of consolidation, it’s time to set out some lines in the sand to see which side has the upper hand. The accompanying chart shows the S&P 500, the equal-weighted S&P 500, and the Russell 2000, along with their respective rising trend lines...
Special Announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publishing a year from now, on March 31, 2026. (This is being published on March 31, 2025 and it is not an April Fools joke). Here's some history. I began writing Humble Student of the Markets in 2007. I had left Merrill Lynch to begin...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Markets were rattled by policy under Trump 1.0 by his unpredictable and chaotic nature. Trump 2.0 promises to be more of the same. Other than the transactional nature of Trump’s deal making, what’s his ultimate end game? It’s to undo the effects of globalization. The political backdrop can be explained by Branko Milanovic’s famous...
Mid-week market update: The stock market’s relief rally arrived this week when the WSJ reported over the weekend that Trump’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs due to be announced on April 2 will be narrowly focused. The S&P 500 rallied to regain its 200 dma. The index pulled back below the 200 dma when Bloomberg reported...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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