China slowdown = Reduce risk

It’s becoming harder and harder to avoid the cold hard facts. China is slowing. The PBOC unexpectedly cut interest rates last week. The central bank began by cutting the benchmark lending rate on overnight, 7-day and 1-month standing lending facility (SLF). The move was followed by another surprising 0.20% cut in its 1-year policy rate,...

Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids have you killed today?

Well, well, the Biden decision to withdraw from the presidential race certainly put a new spin on stock market behaviour. According to Ryan Detrick, stock prices don't behave well during election years of lame duck presidents.     That said, "lame duck" years often refer to a second term president. The closest analogues to the...

The one burning question of the Great Rotation

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Positioning for Trump 2.0

In the wake of Biden’s subpar debate performance and the assassination attempt on Trump, the prediction markets’ odds of a Trump victory in November have substantially risen. Equally important is Wall Street’s reaction, which has investors sitting up to take notice of the implications of a second Trump Administration in 2025.     Despite the...