Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The problems keep piling up in China. Weakening demographics, as her population shrank for a second consecutive year. Weak consumer spending. A record property downturn. Rising trade tensions. The drip-drip-drip of these glitches culminated in a massive stock market wipeout as over US$6 trillion has been wiped from the combined capitalization of the Chinese...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been riding its upper Bollinger Band. Historically, upper BB rides haven't been all that bearish, but the current episode is occurring against a backdrop of negative RSI divergences. While the S&P 500 may be on an upper BB ride, it promises to be a roller coaster....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Exhibitions of powerful price momentum are rare. Since the market bottom in 2002, there have been eight occasions when the percentage of S&P 500 above their 50 dma has surged from below 15% to over 90% in a brief period. That latest episode occurred when stock prices soared off the bottom in October 2023. These...
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