Check out our out-of-sample track record:


A correction, not a bear June 2013
A buy signal from the option market September 2013
Are stocks tumbling too far too fast? January 2014
Global growth scare = Trend Model downgrade July 2014
Onwards and upwards August 2014
3 reasons to get more cautious on stocks September 2014
Getting close to a bottom, but not yet October 2014
Why I am bearish (and what would change my mind) May 2015
Relax, have a glass of wine August 2015
Why this is not the start of a bear market September 2015
The reason why the bulls should be cautious about a January hangover December 2015
Buy! Blood is in the Streets January 2016
Super Tuesday special: How President Trump could spark a market blow-off March 2016
How the S&P 500 can get to 2200 and beyond June 2016
Embrace the blow-off (but with a stop loss discipline November 2017
Out of words for ‘extreme’ and ‘unprecedented’ January 2018
Five reasons not to worry (plus 2 concerns) February 2018
Market top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious August 2018

Also see our past work on big picture macro analysis

Mario Draghi reveals the Grand Plan The eurozone Grand Plan for reforms – this has been the road map all along, ignore at your own peril
China turns Japanese? The long-term challenges to China’s growth outlook
Inequality and the genetic lottery: Two views How the Left is both right and wrong on inequality
More evidence of a low return outlook Elevated valuations are pressuring long-term returns

…on quantitative analysis

Examining your assumptions: The Fundamental Law of Active Management Using Grinold’s Law of Active Management in real life
The limitations of Altman Z Why the Altman Z-Score doesn’t work in all cases of solvency analysis

…on investment policy and financial planning

The ABCs of financial planning Investment policy and asset-liability management concepts
Investment policy: Not just for pension funds Why you need an investment policy statement

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