I enjoy your unique view of market data. I have some questions/concerns about the data sources used for the recession watch. There are some in the investing community that question the validity of the data currently provided by government sources. These would include housing data and retail sales data. I have heard there are a lot of “actuarial” adjustments in these numbers that didn’t occur in the past. I can provide a link to the primary source but I’m a new subscriber and I haven’t read your policy yet on linking to other sites in the forum.
Also I’m under the impression that accounting standards have been considerably loosened in the last 25 years or so. So some corporate profits today would not have been considered profits back then. I’m not trying to just nitpick but I’m concerned that data points that predicted recessions years ago do not have the same definition they do now. So potentially if the same definitions were used today we could actually be in a recession right now. I’m only suggesting this because as an investor I want my data sources to be accurate and comparable over time and I don’t want to be caught out in the wrong side of a trade.
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Also see our past work on big picture macro analysis