• January 18, 2016 at 3:49 pm #2656
    Changsen
    Participant

    Cam, I understand that bear markets come about mostly due to recessions and there doesn’t (yet) appear to be one on the horizon. Your other metrics are showing some positives such as RSI positive divergences and insider buying. However, is there a line in the sand under which you would turn bearish regardless of various insider activities and economic indicators? The reason I ask is that I believe we are not at a bottom yet given the lack of fear as you have pointed out repeatedly. Despite VIX reaching 30 intraday on Friday, we have not had a single day where VIX closed above 30. Since the decline started, we have always had a strong bounce either intraday or EOD. This tells me bulls are buying dips and bears are covering. While some of the put call ratios are clearly in fear territory on Friday, total trading volume (having not exceeded Aug 24th), the way we close (the lack of a flush lower), VIX staying below 30, ISEE Equity Only staying above 100 despite big down days are all signs of complacency. Hence I am thinking the bottom is going to be a lot lower before a decent bottom. If we drop below Oct 2014 low, would that change your belief of a late cycle bull market?

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